CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2016-07-23T05:24:00-CME-001)

:Issued: 2016 Jul 23 1230 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 60723
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 23 Jul 2016, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 23 Jul 2016 until 25 Jul 2016)
SOLAR FLARES  : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)
PREDICTIONS FOR 23 Jul 2016  10CM FLUX: 093 / AP: 008
PREDICTIONS FOR 24 Jul 2016  10CM FLUX: 090 / AP: 006
PREDICTIONS FOR 25 Jul 2016  10CM FLUX: 087 / AP: 016
COMMENT: NOAA 2567 started another active flaring episode shortly after
midnight producing 3 M-class flares. The intensities and peak timings of
the events were resp. M5.0 (02:11UT), M7.6 (05:16UT), and M5.5 (05:31UT).
In particular the last event was accompanied by an impressive ejection of
material. San Vito reported a type II radio burst with related shock speed
of the disturbance of 729 km/s. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
somewhat enhanced (0.77 pfu at 07:25UT), but has remained so far well below
the event threshold (10 pfu). The currently available coronagraphic images
show that the bulk of the associated coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is
directed away from the Earth. However, a glancing blow from the CME of the
double-peaked M-class event cannot be excluded. No other earth-directed
CMEs were observed.

An accurate assessment of the magnetic configuration of the NOAA 2565 /
2567 sunspot cluster is difficult due to its close proximity near the west
limb. Nonetheless, further M-class flaring is possible, with a small chance
on an X-class flare. A warning for a potential proton event has been put
into effect.

The interplanetary magnetic field was directed towards the Sun (negative),
except during the 17:00-02:00UT interval when it was steadily positive
(away from the Sun). This interval corresponded to somewhat elevated solar
wind speeds between about 440 and 500 km/s and Bz near 0 nT. At the end of
the reporting period, solar wind parameters were back at nominal values
with wind speed near 390 km/s, and Bz varying between -8 and +7 nT. A small
positive coronal hole (CH; latitude +20 degrees) is near the central
meridian. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions were observed.

Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected. An active
episode is not excluded, in particular on 25 July when a glancing blow from
the 23 July CME is possible.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 030, BASED ON 22 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 22 Jul 2016
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : 057
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 090
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 018
AK WINGST              : 012
ESTIMATED AP           : 011
ESTIMATED ISN          : 044, BASED ON 30 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
23  0146  0211 0223 ////// M5.0          09/2567      VI/2III/2 
23  0500  0516 0524 N02W74 M7.6 3B  310  09/2567      III/2 
23  0527  0531 0533 ////// M5.5     900  09/2567      V/3IV/2II/1 
END

BT

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